PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza and Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporters

CRACKS in the political alliance led by Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. are expected to widen in the runup to the 2025 midterm elections, political analysts said on Wednesday.

The irreparable fissure would probably spur two contending senatorial slates from emerging factions, they said.

The sacking of ex-President and Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as deputy speaker on Tuesday showed a clear chasm within the ruling alliance, Ronald Llamas, chairman of Galahad Consulting Agency, told OneNews channel.

Lines have been drawn and it’s almost impossible for the division to be resolved, said Mr. Llamas, a political adviser of the late Benigno S.C. Aquino III. “This is all about 2025.”

Philippine midterm elections in May 2025 will be a crucial referendum on the Marcos government’s policies, with 12 of the 24 Seante seats up for grabs. Filipinos will also elect leaders at the local level, including congressmen, governor, mayors, and village captains, among other officials.

Ms. Arroyo and Davao City Rep. Isidro T. Ungab were stripped off their deputy speaker posts after refusing to sign a resolution upholding the “Integrity and honor” of the House of Representatives amid ex-President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s scathing remarks against the institution.

Mr. Duterte has described the House as the country’s “most rotten institution” after congressmen on Oct. 10 stripped several agencies including the Office of the Vice President and the Education department of their confidential funds.

Lawmakers transferred P1.23 billion worth of these budgets to security agencies amid worsening tensions with China.

Mr. Duterte is the father of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, who is also Education secretary.

This was all expected since Ms. Arroyo is identified with the Duterte camp, Francisco A. Magno, who teaches politics and development studies at De La Salle University in Manila, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“Recent changes in key leadership positions in the legislative and possibly executive branches of government to some degree reflect the preparations made by political personalities for the upcoming midterm elections,” Randy P. Tuaño, dean of the Ateneo de Manila University School of Government, said in a Messenger chat.

Tensions between Speaker and presidential cousin Martin G. Romualdez and the Dutertes have spurred several members of the former ruling party PDP-Laban to resign, and Mr. Duterte on Tuesday said he’s prepared to be the last man standing.    

“I would encourage those who are not in tune with us, you can leave,” he told SMNI News. “What’s important are party principles.”

“I doubt it’s about principles,” Mr. Llamas said. “It’s more about politics as usual — alignment and realignment, and political loyalties.”

The crack in the UniTeam alliance started when Ms. Carpio resigned from Mr. Romualdez’s party, Lakas-CMD, Deputy Minority Leader and Party-list Rep. France L. Castro told reporters at the sidelines of a House hearing. It would only worsen as politicians vouch for their interests and higher government posts, she added.

Ms. Carpio, a staunch ally of Ms. Arroyo, left Lakas-CMD a few days after the ex-President was demoted from senior deputy speaker to deputy speaker.

But Albay Rep. Jose Ma. Clemente S. Salceda said tensions in the House of Representatives are not a distraction to the chamber’s duty in passing proposed laws.

“Recent events have not affected the pace of our legislative performance,” Mr. Salceda said in a statement. “Political matters are properly the concern of the House leadership and the party leaders of the supermajority coalition. Committee chairmen like me are tasked with policy.”

Mr. Salceda, a former chief of staff of Ms. Arroyo, said her removal from the post would not hinder them from fulfilling her duties.

“It seems that the status quo is robust, solid and vigorous with respect to doing the job [as lawmakers,]” he told reporters.

Also on Wednesday, House Senior Deputy Speaker and Pampanga Rep. Aurelio D. Gonzales, Jr. joined Lakas-CMD after resigning from Mr. Duterte’s PDP-Laban.

Political realignments are nothing new, said Edmund S. Tayao, who teaches at the San Beda Graduate School of Law, said by telephone.

OPPOSITION SLATE
“Because a new election is coming up, there will always be a reconfiguration,” he said. The ruling political groups want to make sure that its members toe the line, he added.

Mr. Tayao said the camp of Mr. Romualdez was likely expecting Ms. Arroyo to “toe the line” or “show that she’s one with their political direction.”

Mr. Duterte in September said the Speaker was gunning for the presidency, citing previous conversations between them.

“If it’s true, then there’s every reason for the Speaker to really organize and prepare for it,” Mr. Tayao said. “He sees former President Arroyo remaining in the group as something important.”

He said Ms. Arroyo remains influential, noting that she’s a stalwart of the administration alliance. “Whether we like it or not, she’s a former President.”

Ms. Arroyo, a known power broker in Philippine politics, was a key backer of the political alliance between Mr. Marcos and Ms. Carpio during the 2022 campaign.

WR Numero Research President and CEO Cleve V. Arguelles said unless a credible threat from the opposition emerges, the ruling alliance in the 2022 elections “won’t be able to keep a united front until the next election cycle.”

Mr. Llamas said the Dutertes might form an opposition slate in the 2025 midterm elections.

But Mr. Magno said the camp of Ms. Carpio might not take an opposition role since her camp still relies on “administration resources.”

However, the Vice President and her camp might form a senatorial slate that is allied with the Marcos administration, he said. A scenario of two administration slates is “a possibility only if the rift widens.”

Jean Encinas-Franco, who teaches political science at the University of the Philippines, said there’s “all the more reason that the real opposition should get their act together to provide a genuine alternative to the public.”

The latest crack within the ruling alliance happened just days after Armed Forces of the Philippines chief Romeo S. Brawner, Jr. warned troops against participating in any efforts to destabilize the government.

National Security Adviser Eduardo M. Año, clarifying confusions surrounding Mr. Brawner’s remarks, said there were “healthy and passionate exchanges/debates among some retired military officers and even some criticism against certain policies of the current administration” but that these were “within the bounds of our democratic space.”

“Only one president can be elected in 2028. Every day that the VP is humiliated publicly by supposed allies is also a daily reminder that there is really not much point in fighting for the powerless role of spare tire,” Mr. Arguelles said.

“Beware, the Speaker may have the upper hand today, but it would be foolish to underestimate the alliance of the three iron ladies of the North and the South,” he added, referring to Ms. Arroyo, Ms. Carpio and Senator Maria Jose Imelda Josefa “Imee” R. Marcos.

The presidential sister in a statement said she would rally behind Mr. Duterte, whom she called a friend, even if she becomes the last person to do so.