Yes, let’s…

Do whatever it takes to mend ties with China.

But without compromising our core values and interests. And without kowtowing either — neither to Beijing nor to Washington.

Though, admittedly, all that is easier said than done when faced with realpolitik. Actual settings are never that simple. Case in point: the Philippines has long been painted as being Washington’s stooge for allowing US forces since 2014 to use certain sites in the country amid rising tensions with China — a case of Manila and Washington using each other to address a mutually recognized threat. But this strategic alliance has not given us any comparative advantage whatsoever over our regional economic rivals when it comes to US tariffs1, thus, making us look like a jilted lover. Or take Thailand, which in February deported at least 40 Uighur asylum seekers to face certain persecution and death in China2, and stopped a plan to legalize casinos in October after Beijing said that China would discourage its citizens from engaging in gaming tourism3… but would Bangkok’s ac-tions automatically mark it as a puppet of its northern neighbor?

“Whew!” I thought to myself as photos of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr. approaching Chinese President Xi Jinping at the handover ceremony in South Korea of the Asia-Pacific Economic Coop-eration (APEC) chairmanship made the rounds on the internet on Nov. 1 (China will host the 33rd APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Shenzhen, Guangdong province next year).

Frankly, I don’t think we have any choice — not if we are to ensure the success of meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as incoming chair of that regional body, for which we need Beijing’s active participation.

Various news reports note that the Philippines has set certain priorities for those meetings next year which carry the theme, “Navigating our future, together,” namely: strengthening peace and security, including in the South China Sea (it will be curious to see how ASEAN will address this issue under Philippine chairmanship), pursuing “prosperity corridors” and advancing people empowerment, promoting a rules-based multilateral trading system and enhancing supply chain connectivity, advancing digital economy initiatives, protecting migrant workers, addressing climate change and enhancing food security, facilitating Timor-Leste’s further integration in ASEAN as its newest member, etc.

What an embarrassment it would be should China send lower-ranking officials to (or boycott altogether) ASEAN meetings next year due to our spat. Or — since this region is a key arena for superpower play — Chinese offi-cials could simply refuse to meet bilaterally with Philippine counterparts while doing so with everyone else, in order to signal Beijing’s displeasure with Manila.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a thinly veiled reference to the Philippines, told foreign journalists months back that there is only one member of ASEAN that has not been cooperating with China in the South China Sea (or words to that effect) but that he expects the unnamed country to turn more accommodating eventually (a reference to the new administration come 2028?)

NO PUSHOVER
Foreign news items and analytical pieces have shown that this administration has already made its point that the Philippines is no pushover when it comes to defending sovereign rights in our exclusive economic zone (kinda like Vietnam standing up to aggression from its neighbor north of its border). We have been building a credible external defense posture by, among others, doing what we can with our limited resources to stand up for our mar-itime rights in the West Philippine Sea as we modernize our military while, at the same time, exposing China’s bully tactics for all to see (dictatorships shun transparency) and, consequently, mobilizing support from all nations with interest in unimpeded transit through the economically vital South China Sea.

That, after the previous government’s swing towards China did not yield the promised investments and assistance from the world’s second-biggest economy, nor a respite from the strong-arm tactics by its coast guard and maritime militia. (Remember how former president Rodrigo R. Duterte complained in at least two public remarks in his last year in office that Philippine personnel were being harassed in those waters by an unnamed power? It was clear even then that he was referring to China, and our coast guard and fishermen would later admit that Chinese forces had not eased up on them, even as we bent over backwards to avoid antagonizing Beijing, which did not reciprocate our accommodation. It’s just that the past administration told our soldiers and coast guard not to speak publicly of such incidents in the West Philippine Sea.)

There are those among us who score our pushback against China’s aggression — whether by actual conviction (I certainly respect that) or as paid (in various ways) local minions of the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department who do nothing else but parrot Beijing’s official position hook, line, and sinker (if one looks like a duck, waddles like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, then…) — but otherwise do not propose credible alternatives beyond returning to the past administration’s failed pro-China policy or setting up a credible defense capability on our own (without explaining how exactly we are to do that with few resources and little knowhow).

TURNING POINT
Make no mistake: we are at a crossroads in our troubled relationship with China.

Foreign Minister Wang was correct in saying that this situation cannot last, although he said so from a different perspective.

For us, well: we gotta get out of this foreign policy rut, and here upon us is our once-in-a-blue moon moment to do just that.

Our ASEAN chairmanship in 2026 presents both a risk and an opportunity in this regard (until our next stint in this post after a decade).

A risk, as we have just said, because we could end up with egg on our face should Beijing choose to humiliate us (still another possibility: blocking any progress under our watch towards a South China Sea Code of Conduct or CoC, for which talks began in 2002 and which we hope to finalize next year4), as well as an opportunity to reset our bilateral relations with our northern neighbor (on firmer ground this time) en route to a genuine balanced foreign policy, with our ASEAN chairmanship marking a watershed for such recalibration. It is significant, I think, that Mr. Marcos publicly announced that he hopes to invite Mr. Xi to the CoC signing ceremony in the Philippines.

SETTING THE MOOD
But it behooves us to set a tone conducive for rapprochement, even as we rightly do not “yield an inch” of our maritime rights. Finding the right strategic and tactical mix is key, lest we be blamed — even if wrongly — for being deaf to calls for diplomacy to prevail.

Already, we have resumed the e-visa system for Chinese visitors that had been suspended for two years5 — a move couched in terms of making sure that maritime tensions do not overshadow promising fields for bilateral cooperation.

Beijing itself seems intent on overtures of its own, ranging from Mr. Xi’s ready acknowledgement (with his signature ghost of a smile) of Mr. Marcos’s greeting at the recent APEC meeting (true: the latter described it as a gesture of “common courtesy,” but then, amid escalating bilateral tensions, actions can speak louder than words) to $2.4 million in funds and emergency supplies sent to the Philippines in the wake of recent storms6.

Our ambassador to China, former journalist Jaime A. FlorCruz (one of our true China hands who actually spent a good part of his life there, including during the turbulent Cultural Revolution) and a few businesses have sol-diered on in probing for opportunities for cooperation with Chinese counterparts through current difficulties. It’s just a pity that their efforts have not been better publicized, but that gap should be easily plugged.

I do know that many members of business chambers have been chafing privately over missed opportunities in that huge economy up north (never mind emerging signs of internal trouble there) due to prevail-ing geopolitics. Our economy, which has been slowing well short of growth targets (needed to lift more Filipinos out of poverty), needs all the boosts it can muster to speed up. Foreign trade accounted for about 66% of Philippine economic output last year7 (with exports of goods and services contributing 25.8%8), and China happens to be a top trade partner (the top source of imports and fourth-biggest destination of Philippine exports, but if packaged with Hong Kong, it would displace the United States as our top export market.)

With their immense stored knowledge about and experience in dealing with China, business groups could provide top state policymakers with valuable insights and recommendations at this critical juncture as the government charts and embarks on its next moves out of this decade-old foreign policy quagmire. The Management Association of the Philippines, for example, has an International Relations committee whose members include Asian Institute of Management professor Federico M. Macaranas, himself a former Foreign Affairs undersecretary during the Fidel V. Ramos years.

And then, our officials can afford to be more circumspect in their public pronouncements. Telling journalists, for instance, that the Philippines will inevitably be drawn into a conflict over Taiwan and that missiles stationed in the Philippines can reach Beijing, cannot sit well with the party across the negotiation table who we hope to engage successfully. (Yes, I know, the officials who uttered such statements were “just stating facts,” but deliberate, well-designed, effective messaging is key at this critical point of mending frayed bilateral ties.)

We could also scale back joint maritime patrols past reefs occupied by China (like poking a hornet’s nest even as this has proven to be an effective way to enforce the 2016 win at The Hague) — even if just momentarily — in order to encourage the other side to respond amicably and sincerely to our overtures. Joint exercises with our allies within our territory may continue.

So, let’s hope that policymakers this time strike the right balance needed to take advantage of this opportunity at our doorstep.

1 https://tinyurl.com/29tj593d
2 https://tinyurl.com/2ypx28ul
3https://tinyurl.com/28gm3fnw
4https://tinyurl.com/2ckyxkx2
5https://tinyurl.com/29odo6ya
6https://tinyurl.com/2xjzft8u
7https://tinyurl.com/2cgzoaqd
8https://tinyurl.com/239u832w

Wilfredo G. Reyes was editor-in-chief of BusinessWorld from 2020 through 2023.