ACEN shares climb on Palauig expansion, RE deal

By Abigail Marie P. Yraola, Deputy Research Head

SHARES of ACEN Corp. rose last week on news of its Palauig solar farm expansion and a renewable energy (RE) supply agreement with Schneider Electric, developments that analysts said offset profit taking.

The Ayala-led listed energy platform recorded a value turnover of P350.61 million, with 116.18 million shares traded from Jan. 5 to 9, Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) data showed.

ACEN shares closed at P2.97 apiece on Friday, up 2.1% week on week. In comparison, the industrial index rose by 3.3%, while the benchmark PSE index gained 3.5%.

Year to date, ACEN’s share price is up 9.2%. The industrial sector advanced by 5.2%, while the broader market declined by 2.8%.

Toby Allan C. Arce, head of sales trading at Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc., said ACEN’s price movement reflected cautious but selective positioning by investors.

“The early trading days of 2026 were characterized by moderate liquidity and mixed investor sentiment due to lingering macroeconomic headwinds such as inflation pressures, higher energy input costs, and cautious global risk appetite,” he said in a Viber message.

He added that these conditions tempered enthusiasm for growth-oriented stocks, including those in the renewable energy sector.

For Andrei Jorge G. Soriano, research associate at China Bank Securities Corp., ACEN’s mixed price performance may be partly due to profit taking, “given that ACEN’s stock price has already rallied 18% since the start of December.”

Still, ACEN remained among the most actively traded stocks by value during the week, ranking 19th overall, Mr. Arce said. He attributed this to continued institutional positioning and speculative activity tied to the company’s operational updates and RE expansion plans.

“Investors also tracked developments in the broader energy sector amid ongoing regulatory reforms and the accelerating shift toward sustainable energy solutions, both of which reinforced ACEN’s relevance in the market,” he added.

ACEN earlier disclosed that its unit, Giga Ace 8, Inc., plans to begin commercial operations of the P26-billion expansion of the Palauig solar farm in Zambales by the first quarter of 2027. The project aims to raise capacity to 420 megawatt-peak (MWp) from the initially proposed 300 MWp.

The expansion will include a battery energy storage system with a capacity of up to 347 megawatts, designed to supply electricity during periods of peak demand or supply shortfalls.

Lithium-ion batteries will be used due to their high energy density, longer lifespan, and environmental advantages, the company said.

Giga Ace 8 is a special purpose vehicle for renewable energy projects and previously secured an Environmental Compliance Certificate for a 246-MWp solar facility.

“This planned expansion is a milestone for the company’s renewable portfolio,” Mr. Arce said.

“This expansion will not only enhance production efficiency but also consolidate ACEN’s foothold in large-scale solar generation, distinguishing it from competitors with smaller or more regionally concentrated portfolios.”

Mr. Soriano likewise viewed the development positively, saying it “reinforces the company’s long-term initiative to expand its RE portfolio.”

Separately, ACEN and American Power Conversion Corp. entered into an RE supply agreement through ACEN RES, the company’s retail electricity supply arm operating under the government’s Green Energy Option Program (GEOP).

The GEOP allows electricity users with an average monthly demand of at least 100 kilowatts to choose renewable energy as their power source. ACEN RES holds about 57% of the GEOP market and sources power from ACEN’s solar, wind, and geothermal assets.

“[This] marks a strategic step in expanding its commercial customer base… With ACEN RES already commanding 57% of the GEOP market, the deal underscores its dominant position in supplying renewable power to qualified customers,” Mr. Arce said.

He added that the agreement could generate recurring revenues while strengthening ACEN’s position as a renewable energy partner for multinational firms pursuing sustainability targets.

“This collaboration could modestly lift near-term earnings through stable retail energy margins and may also strengthen market share in corporate green energy solutions.”

Mr. Soriano said the agreement should help maintain ACEN’s strength in the local retail electricity supply market.

“Moreover, securing bilateral offtake agreements should also help support financial performance stability,” he added.

In the third quarter of 2025, ACEN’s net income declined by 44.5% to P1.03 billion from P1.85 billion a year earlier. This brought its nine-month net income to P1.79 billion, down 78% from P8.14 billion in the same period in 2024.

Consolidated revenues in the third quarter fell by 17.6% year on year to P7.24 billion. For the January-to-September period, however, revenues rose by 22.2% to P28.08 billion from P22.99 billion.

“ACEN’s lackluster 3Q25 financial results could be partially attributed to softer spot prices and power demand, alongside ongoing maintenance in some local assets,” Mr. Soriano said. He added that nine-month earnings were also weighed down by one-off impairment charges related to some international projects.

Mr. Soriano projects full-year 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) at P13 billion.

Mr. Arce expects earnings to recover modestly as seasonal factors normalize and new generation assets come online toward the end of 2025.

“Full-year 2025 net income may reach around P6.1 billion, reflecting a rebound trajectory amid ongoing portfolio diversification,” he said.

He added that ACEN remains financially stable, with manageable leverage and steady cash flows supported by its parent, Ayala Corp.

“The company’s fundamentals point toward gradual earnings recovery as renewable projects transition to commercial operation.”

Mr. Arce placed near-term support at P2.90 and resistance at P3.10.

“A sustained close above the resistance level could invite momentum buying that could push it to P3.30, while failure to hold support may lead to a short-term retest toward P2.70,” he said.

Mr. Soriano gave the same support and resistance levels, adding that investors may be drawn to ACEN’s continued capacity expansion both domestically and overseas, with substantial incremental renewable capacity scheduled for completion this year.

“Moreover, the absence of substantial one-off impairment charges this year could support profit expansion prospects,” he said.