ICTSI climbs on long-term Subic terminal deal

RAZON-LED International Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICTSI) shares surged last week after the company secured a 25-year renewal of its Subic New Container Terminals (NCT) 1 and 2 concessions.

Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) data showed that ICTSI was the most actively traded stock last week, with a total of 7.06 million shares worth P3.68 billion changing hands from Oct. 6 to 10.

ICTSI closed at P526 per share, up 2.7% from the previous Friday’s P512 close, outperforming the services sector’s 0.6% growth and the Philippine Stock Exchange index’s (PSEi) 1.2% contraction.

Year to date, the stock jumped 36.3%, outperforming the 9.7% growth in its sector and reversing the PSE’s 7.5% decline.

Analysts attributed this surge to the market’s positive response to the company’s 25-year concession extension for its Subic terminals.

In a stock exchange disclosure on Oct. 6, ICTSI said its units Subic Bay International Terminals Corp. (SBITC) and ICTSI Subic, Inc. (ISI) received the extensions from the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA), allowing them to operate New Container Terminals 1 and 2 until 2058.

Under the extended concession, SBITC will invest over $130 million in civil infrastructure and additional equipment.

Juan Alfonso G. Teodoro, equity research analyst at Timson Securities, Inc., said that “this major, guaranteed plan for growth made investors optimistic, so they bought more shares, causing the price to easily outperform the rest of the Philippine stock market.”

He added that this news boosted investor confidence as it signaled a strong commitment to long-term growth and enhanced operational capabilities.

Jervin De Celis, equity trader at The First Resources Management and Securities Corp., said that “the 25-year extension granted by the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority significantly reduces long-term regulatory risk for ICTSI while reinforcing its growth visibility.”

Michael Adrian O. Vergara, head of equities and global funds at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., said that New Container Terminals 1 and 2 contribute around 3% of the total twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) capacity, and the planned increase in annual throughput from 600,000 to one million TEUs is expected to strengthen the company’s operations across Asia.

Looking ahead, Mr. Teodoro said that “investors must watch for signs of profit-taking to see if the stock can hold its new higher price levels.”

Moreover, analysts said that investors should closely monitor any updates on how the $130-million expansion will be carried out, while also tracking global trade indicators — such as oil prices — to assess whether conditions remain favorable for the company’s international port operations.

Analysts also advised investors to keep an eye on foreign exchange movements, as the company reports in US dollars.

ICTSI’s attributable net income rose 16% year on year to $244.31 million in the second quarter, bringing first-half attributable profit to $483.84 million, up 15%.

Mr. Teodoro said ICTSI’s third-quarter net profit could reach about $303.36 million, with full-year earnings around $952.73 million.

He placed support levels between P500 and P515, with short-term resistance between P536 and P540.

Mr. De Celis said ICTSI’s third-quarter net income may reach $270 million, with full-year 2025 earnings projected between $1 billion and $1.05 billion.

He pegged immediate support at P515, with stronger buying interest between P505 and P500. Meanwhile, he pegged resistance between P530 and P533, with breakout targets between P540 and P550.

Mr. Vergara said they “see volume recovery in its higher yielding ports and continued yield growth as a potential source of upside to our in-house forecasts.”

He estimated attributable net income for the next quarter between $240 million and $260 million, with full-year earnings between $960 million and $1.01 billion.

He identified support and resistance at P517 and P535, respectively. — Heather Caitlin P. Mañago