45-day lockdown cost Philippines P1.1T

THE Philippines may have lost P1.1 trillion in potential revenue in the first 45 days of a Luzon-wide lockdown that has since been eased, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA).

This is equivalent to 5.56% of economic output, NEDA said in a report released on Friday.

The estimates include losses under the 45-day lockdown in Luzon and varying lockdown days for the Visayas and Mindanao. It excludes losses in the transport sector, it said.

The service sector was the hardest hit with P569.72 billion of revenue losses, followed by industry with P537.72 billion and agriculture with P94.3 billion. (NEDA’s ERRATUM: The We Recover as One report was updated to reflect corrected total figure for losses in Services (Table 3.6), which should be PHP569.72 billion instead of PHP589.72 billion as previously indicated.)

The National Capital Region was the worst hit with P589.25 billion in losses, followed by Calabarzon (Calamba, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon), with P265.13 billion. The amounts are equivalent to 7.89% and 9.02% respectively of regional gross domestic product.

NEDA said the transport sector was also affected by the lockdown but it did not have estimates yet of the loss.

In the service sector, the car industry, personal household goods and wholesale and retail trade lost more than P86 billion in potential revenue. The tourism sector could have lost P60 billion, according to the report.

Manufacturing companies posted the biggest loss of P486.97 billion, followed by the construction industry at P38 billion and mining and quarrying at P13 billion.

NEDA said schools could lose P142.124 billion if they are not allowed to open by August.

Bad loans of the banking sector could hit P368 billion or 4.9% of lenders’ collective loan balances — more than double the present level.

NEDA said smaller “sporadic lockdowns” could still happen under the so-called new normal even if people learn to practice physical distancing.

The economy could shrink by as much as 3.4% this year after “these global disruptions, together with the travel restrictions imposed at the end of January, deterioration in business and consumer confidence, and the imposition of the enhanced community quarantine in Luzon, NEDA said.