The ASEAN economic agenda and the Philippines’ fiscal condition

Last week, on Feb. 24, I attended the ASEAN Editors and Economic Opinion Leaders Forum at the Fairmont Hotel in Makati. Organized by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), it was a huge forum with a huge audience. I counted five Cabinet Secretaries who spoke there — DTI Secretary Ma. Cristina Roque, Finance Secretary Frederick Go, Education Secretary Sonny Angara, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin, and Information and Communication Technology Secretary Henry Aguda.

Executive Secretary Ralph Recto was supposed to give a keynote speech in the morning and Presidential Communications Office (PCO) Secretary Dave Gomez was supposed to speak in the last panel discussion in the afternoon. Perhaps President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. asked them to work in their offices instead as he himself faced the audience and foreign officials.

The president spoke in the afternoon, not with a prepared speech but rather in a one-on-one interview with veteran broadcaster Rico Hizon. The President did not even glance at his prepared notes. It was the first time I had seen and heard him speak in a spontaneous set up, and I was pleasantly surprised and impressed — he was very articulate and knowledgeable about many issues and reform items. From the territorial dispute in the South China Sea (he did not use the term “West Philippine Sea”), to incentives to attract more foreign investments, from reducing the burden of bureaucracy for business, to expanding our exports, from potential candidates for President in 2028, to the ASEAN chairmanship, and much more.

Mr. Hizon asked the president who would be his candidate for 2028 elections, in order to ensure the continuity of his economic programs and reforms. Mr. Marcos answered that it should be someone who understands economics, how to control inflation, expand GDP and production, increase investments and job creation, and improve the welfare of the Filipinos. A simple, direct, and honest response by the President — I liked it.

Mr. Hizon also asked the president what his focus would be as Chair of the ASEAN this year. He said that his priority is to make the ASEAN stick to its original purpose, to be an economic bloc unified in pursuing economic prosperity for the members and their people. A beautiful response. I would call it his “ASEAN Economic Agenda of Peace and Prosperity.” Yes, Mr. President, we can never go wrong with such a primordial goal.

One thing I noticed at the ASEAN event was that it was supposedly an editors and economic columnists/writers’ forum but there were very few media people in the room, mostly broadcast people and TV anchors like Rico Hizon, Karen Davila, Regina Hing, and Cathy Yang. And the editor-in-chief of the Straits Times of Singapore. I did not see the editor in chiefs (EICs) of big Philippine newspapers. The bulk of the audience was made up of corporate people plus a few undersecretaries of certain agencies.

Thus, the ASEAN Editors and Economic Opinion Leaders Forum became an ASEAN Business and Economic Leaders Forum. I read a few reports in print media on how the reporters and journalists were excluded from the venue and relegated to a separate room watching on wide screen TV monitors. I think the DTI should have co-organized it with the PCO because the office knows all the major editors and economic columnists and opinion leaders in the country.

CATCHING UP
Some ASEAN countries are industrializing very fast. For instance, when looking at the exports of manufactured goods in 2024, Singapore and Vietnam had exported $376 billion and $339 billion worth, more than UK and Canada, while Malaysia was catching up with Canada and may have overtaken it in 2025.

The Philippines still has a long way to go to catch up with the rest of the ASEAN-6 but is still far ahead of the other ASEAN-4.

Considering the risks of higher prices for oil-gas from the Middle East as the US/Israel-Iran war continues, I checked the value of ASEAN countries’ imports of fuels and mining products. Singapore leads in the ASEAN with $93 billion in 2024, followed by Malaysia and Thailand.

China and the US are the large importers of these products, as their exports are powered by fossil fuels and metallic products importation (see Table 1).

CASH
Last Tuesday, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) finally released the government’s full year 2025 cash operations report (COR). The fiscal condition remained flattish, the budget deficit was still at around P1.6 trillion a year, financing or net borrowings was still at P1.4 trillion a year. Revenues are rising, but expenditures are rising fast too (see Table 2).

The large-scale privatization of some government assets and corporations should be done to raise more revenues without raising taxes. And there should be spending cuts to control the hemorrhage in public expenditures, like reforming the Military and Uniformed Personnel pension, cutting the budgets of state universities and reallocating the funds to public elementary and secondary education.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.

minimalgovernment @gmail.com