Signals from the Future: Leading in a world of invisible disruptions

The Philippines just had an election on May 12 and with Filipinos so used to political maneuverings and the entertainment-colored lens with which the candidates were viewed, the results came as a major surprise. Many candidates that emerged as winners came from the periphery — those that did not expect to win but ran nevertheless in hopes of good governance. And a number of those who rode on the crest of surveys that predicted them winning, lost. Entertainers, political clans, traditional politicians banking on their status and influence that served them for many years did not see the loss coming. Unexpected, therefore unprepared — and all this happened without warning signs.

This Philippine experience mirrors the state of the global order today. Disruptions are moving stealthily, more subtly, are harder to detect, and remain invisible until we feel their effects cascade across industries, economies, and nations. They move beneath the surface, altering the landscape before many realize a shift has occurred.

The past few years had been trying times as business leaders contended with visible disruptions — a global pandemic, economic shocks, social upheavals, and disruptive technological advances, among others — testing their resolve and agility to navigate the effects. Rising above these crises took a while, but pivots are easier because the “enemies” are known and therefore can be managed. What happens when these changes are imperceptible forces that ripple quietly but are no less profound?

A FUTURE WITHOUT A BLUEPRINT
We live in a time of rising uncertainty, economic fragmentation, and global realignments — one where leaders can no longer rely on old playbooks to get through. Traditional anchors of power, influence, and predictability are shifting. We see an unfolding global order no longer defined by a single dominant power or narrative but characterized by dispersed influence, competing ideologies, and regionalized interests. We are entering a multipolar world, and this is a powerful foundational lens through which we understand deep disruptions and a future that no longer fits conventional blueprints.

A recent speech by Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong captured it well: “We are in the midst of a messy transition.” He pointed out that the geopolitical tensions and shifting alliances are “reshaping the world as we know it — and we may be dealing with this landscape for years to come.”

The convergence of these two forces — invisible disruptions and a multipolar era — presents a unique and complex leadership challenge. It demands new thinking, new competencies, and a shift away from linear to exponential thinking, from traditional planning towards anticipatory leadership, from process-based operation to systemic awareness and organizational agility. It expects leaders not only to steer their organizations through volatility, but also to anticipate emerging risks, seize unorthodox opportunities, and lead with clarity amid ambiguity.

CUMULATIVE IMPACT IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD
“… we are in a multipolar world, and my call is, rather than wishing this away, wishing that the world turns back to where it was, we work hard to make the best out of economic relations.” (IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva)

Unlike the dramatic, headline-grabbing crises of the past, invisible disruptions can come from the periphery, sending signals through gradual shifts that may seem insignificant at first but eventually lead to substantial change. They can manifest through:

• Policy realignments that quietly alter trade flows and market access.

• Emerging technologies that displace or even erase the need for jobs even before regulations can catch up.

• Changing social contracts driven by generational expectations around work, sustainability, and governance.

• Cultural shifts amplified by hyperconnected digital communities that influence consumer behavior and public sentiment overnight.

A single disruption might be manageable, but multiple, interconnected forces create complex feedback loops that accelerate change and amplify risks. A regulatory tweak in one region, for instance, can ripple through international financial systems. The challenges are magnified in their cumulative impact.

Both Prime Minister Wong and IMF’s Georgieva appear to view these turbulences, however, through another lens — as fresh opportunities for recalibration, rebalancing, and even restarts — toward more agile, more resilient businesses. In this chaos can emerge innovation and growth.

HOW LEADERS CAN PREPARE
The complex realities that multipolarity brings reflect divergent social values, technological priorities, and business models that can amplify the already “fracturing of globalization” (Georgiva). Long-range plans can no longer be built on the assumption of relative stability. To survive and thrive in these shifting global dynamics, leaders must now embrace strategic agility — the ability to pivot quickly in response to emerging signals and to balance short-term resilience with long-term reinvention.

We cannot manage a complicated future with the incremental mindset that has long governed business management. The disruptive times call for building diverse leadership teams capable of interpreting weak signals, making bold calls under uncertainty, and nurturing a culture of continuous learning. Organizations must foster resilience and agility to thrive in a future without clear roadmaps.

The future belongs to leaders who can sense, interpret, and act on signals of change before they become tomorrow’s crises.

AGILITY, RESILIENCE IN A MULTIPOLAR ERA
The theme of the Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) 23rd International CEO Conference, “Leading Amidst Invisible Disruptions: Agility and Resilience in a Multipolar Era,” aims to be a platform to unpack these complex dynamics and ignite sparks towards shaping collective leadership responses. The conference will convene thought leaders, strategists, and CEOs navigating these realities in real time. It is an opportunity to gain the foresight and clarity needed to lead in times when the rules are being rewritten and the future remains uncharted. Join us on Sept. 9 at Shangri-La The Fort in BGC, Taguig.

For particulars, please contact the MAP Secretariat through <map@map.org.ph> or <map.philippines@map.org.ph>.

Alma Rita R. Jimenez is chair of the MAP CEO Conference Committee and co-vice-chair of the MAP Trade, Investments and Tourism Committee. She is the co-vice-chair of the MAP Research and Development Foundation’s Campaign Against Malnutrition and Child Stunting Committee. She is president and CEO of Health Solutions Corp. and is a former undersecretary of the Department of Tourism.

map@map.org.ph