Gross international reserves slip to $105.7B in July

THE PHILIPPINES’ gross international reserves (GIR) slipped in July amid lower gold prices and as the government paid back more of its foreign debt, preliminary data from the central bank showed.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Thursday reported that dollar reserves dipped by 0.3% to $105.7 billion as of end-July from $106 billion as of end-June.

Year on year, the GIR inched down by 1% from $106.74 billion.

The central bank said the decline was mainly due to “lower global gold prices and the National Government’s drawdowns on its foreign currency deposits with the BSP to service external debt obligations.”

Ample foreign exchange buffers protect the country from market volatility and ensure that it is capable of paying its debts in the event of an economic downturn.

The central bank said the latest GIR provides “a robust external liquidity buffer.”

The level of dollar reserves as of end-July is enough to cover about 3.4 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.

It is also equivalent to 7.2 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income.

“By convention, GIR is viewed to be adequate if it can finance at least three months’ worth of the country’s imports of goods and payments of services and primary income,” the BSP said.

“The latest GIR level ensures availability of foreign exchange to meet balance of payments financing needs, such as for payment of imports and debt service, in extreme conditions when there are no export earnings or foreign loans.”

International reserves are foreign assets of the BSP held mostly as investments in foreign-issued securities, monetary gold, and foreign exchange.

These are supplemented by claims to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the form of reserve position in the fund and special drawing rights (SDRs).

The BSP’s foreign exchange holdings plunged by 34.3% to $826.3 million as of July from $1.26 billion as of end-June. Year on year, it rose by 2.1% from $809 million.

The value of the central bank’s gold holdings edged lower by 0.1% to $13.78 billion from $13.8 billion as of June. On the other hand, it jumped by 33.7% from $10.31 billion a year earlier.

At end-July, spot gold was down 1.5% at $3,275.92 per ounce. US gold futures settled 0.8% lower at $3,352.8, Reuters reported.

Gold tends to perform well during economic uncertainty and a low-interest-rate environment further supports the non-yielding asset.

BSP data showed foreign investments increased by 0.2% to $86.42 billion as of July from $86.26 billion a month ago. However, it dropped by 5.1% to $91.1 billion from the same period in 2024.

The country’s reserve position in the IMF slipped by 0.5% to $729 million from $732.4 million in the previous month. Year on year, it went up by 1.3% from $719.9 million.

SDRs — or the amount which the Philippines can tap from the IMF’s reserve currency basket — was unchanged month on month at $3.94 billion.

Meanwhile, net international reserves decreased by 0.3% to $105.7 billion as of end-July from $106 billion as of end-June.

Net international reserves refer to the difference between the GIR and reserve liabilities, including short-term foreign debt, and credit and loans from the IMF.

“The decline in GIR may be caused by larger debt repayments to address maturing securities and other obligations,” Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., said.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the drop in GIR was also amid the continued “Trump risk factor that led to some market volatility worldwide.”

Markets have been in a wait-and-see mode amid the US’ flip-flopping tariff policies.

In an executive order signed on July 31, US President Donald J. Trump imposed a 19% duty on many goods from five members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — the Philippines, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. This was expected to take effect on Thursday (Aug. 7).

Meanwhile, Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said that the dollar reserves could trend lower in the coming months if the BSP intervenes to support the peso.

“If the BSP intervenes to keep the US dollar from breaching P59 and P60, we should see further depletion of our GIR,” he said in a Viber message.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told Bloomberg on Tuesday that the central bank is intervening more forcefully during periods of extended peso weakness as part of a new strategy, gradually moving away from day-to-day intervention.

He said the central bank adopted a new formula that determines the magnitude of peso losses that require stronger intervention to curb price pressures, Bloomberg reported.

“They aren’t worried about breaches of these levels though since inflation is pretty low,” Mr. Neri added.

Inflation sharply eased to a near six-year low of 0.9% in July from 1.4% in June and 4.4% a year ago, marking the fifth straight month that it settled below the central bank’s 2-4% target.

For the first seven months of the year, inflation averaged 1.7%, a tad higher than the BSP’s 1.6% forecast for 2025. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson