Rice import freeze not expected to affect inflation; stocks ample

THE temporary ban on rice imports is not expected to stoke inflation as rice stocks remain substantial, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).

“We had a record harvest in the first half, plus we are expecting a record harvest for the wet season,” DA spokesman Arnel V. De Mesa told reporters.

“This means that we have lots of rice and palay (unmilled rice) in circulation. (We do not expect) sudden surges in rice prices,” he added.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. suspended rice imports between September and October to provide relief to farmers, who have had to sell their grain to traders for as little as P8 per kilo in some places, well below production costs.

Mr. De Mesa noted that due to the upcoming import ban, the international price of Vietnamese rice declined.

He noted that the Philippines accounts for 45% of Vietnam’s rice shipments.

Palay production in the first half of 2025 rose 6.4% year on year to 9.08 million metric tons (MMT), of which 4.38 MMT came in during the three months to June, the highest second-quarter output since 1987.

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that the national rice inventory as of July 1 rose 27% year on year to 2.8 MMT.

Rice carries a 9% weighting in the basket of goods used to estimate inflation.

The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) has said that the sustained drop in rice prices has significantly eased the cost of living for low-income households.

Mr. De Mesa said rice tariff collections, which go towards supporting the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF), were substantial during the earlier months of the year, adding that the import suspension will not affect the RCEF’s funding.

The Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) reported that imported rice landed between January and July totaled 2.44 MMT.

Mr. De Mesa urged legislators to give equal attention to water impounding and irrigation projects after flood control projects came under scrutiny following their failure to prevent floods during the spate of July rains.

He noted that floods result in the loss of 500,000-600,000 metric tons of palay annually.

Central Luzon, the leading rice-producing region, was heavily affected by flooding in July.

Irrigation systems, which have separate drainage systems, are “long-term” investments, Mr. De Mesa noted. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza