Impeachment threatens VP Sara’s 2028 presidential bid

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

IMPEACHMENT proceedings against Philippine Vice-President (VP) Sara Duterte-Carpio risk undercutting her position as a leading contender for the 2028 presidential election, with corruption allegations threatening to erode the political capital she has built since sweeping into office in 2022, political analysts said.

The move to unseat Ms. Duterte intensifies a high-stakes political standoff between her and President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., once allies who ran together on a unity ticket but have since fallen out and emerged as rivals.

“The stakes are existential,” Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said via Facebook Messenger. “For the Duterte camp, an acquittal strengthens their claim to enduring popular legitimacy.”

On the other hand, he said, a case that gains traction among voters would severely narrow her path back to executive power.

The House of Representatives’ Justice Committee last week began hearing multiple impeachment complaints filed against the Vice-President. The body is expected to conduct a series of televised hearings to determine whether there is sufficient evidence to advance the charges to a full vote in the chamber.

At least 106 lawmakers must vote in favor for the articles of impeachment to be sent to the Senate, which would then sit as an impeachment court. A Senate conviction would remove Ms. Duterte from office and permanently bar her from holding any public post.

The complaints accuse Ms. Duterte of misusing hundreds of millions of pesos in confidential funds allocated to the Office of the Vice-President and the Department of Education, which she headed.

Other allegations include amassing wealth disproportionate to her declared income, seeking to destabilize the government and plotting to assassinate Mr. Marcos, his wife and a former House speaker. Ms. Duterte has denied all accusations.

Taken together, the petitions charge her with graft, bribery, constitutional violations and betrayal of public trust — all impeachable offenses under the 1987 Constitution.

“If the House Justice Committee’s plan to scrutinize the evidence in public pushes through, Filipinos, including her supporters, may increasingly believe the allegations were true,” said Dennis C. Coronacion, chairman of the University of Santo Tomas’ Political Science Department. “That would not be good for her in terms of optics and could potentially damage her reputation as a political leader.”

Mr. Coronacion described the impeachment drive as a “political demolition job” aimed at blocking Ms. Duterte’s widely anticipated 2028 presidential bid. Pre-election surveys have consistently placed the Vice-President among the strongest potential candidates in the race. Mr. Marcos, constitutionally limited to a single six-year term, has yet to anoint a presidential bet.

While impeachment in the Philippines often hinges on arithmetic in Congress, analysts say public perception forged through televised proceedings could prove decisive.

“Impeachment is often framed as a numbers game, but the actual impact is shaped in the arena of public deliberation,” Arjan P. Aguirre, an assistant professor of political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Messenger chat.

If administration allies manage to control the narrative, he said, sustained allegations of wrongdoing could gradually weaken Ms. Duterte’s credibility and build momentum for conviction.

The process could also backfire. Aggressive questioning or procedural disruption by lawmakers allied with the Vice-President could reinforce her image as a political target of the Marcos camp, potentially galvanizing her base, Mr. Aguirre said.

Mr. Tapia noted that the strength of the financial evidence would be critical. “If supported by clear records and a coherent evidentiary chain, it reframes the issue from political contestation to questions of propriety and accountability,” he said. “That has real electoral consequences.”

San Juan Rep. Ysabel Maria J. Zamora said the complaints were bolstered by more evidence than earlier efforts. Ms. Duterte survived an impeachment attempt last year after the Supreme Court nullified the proceedings due to procedural flaws.

“There are more pieces of evidence now because additional attachments were included,” Ms. Zamora said. She added that the Justice committee is nearing the 60-day constitutional limit and expects to conclude deliberations by the end of May.