Sea code completion may be delayed

A CODE of conduct (CoC) in the South China Sea is unlikely be completed this year, analysts said, as Manila prepares for a “bare-bones” Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit focused on the fallout from the Iran war.

Chester B. Cabalza, founding president of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, said that the completion of the code this year may remain “far-fetched.”

“With Manila’s early announcement of its vulnerability to energy security amid the Iran war and its planned bilateral reset with China, most likely the elusive CoC will be set aside in the agenda,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Mr. Cabalza said that the upcoming summits of the ASEAN must focus on the Middle East energy crisis, cybersecurity in the region, and peace and justice in the Cambodia-Thailand conflict.

He noted that the bloc must also reach a regional consensus to halt gray zone activities in the disputed sea.

The ASEAN and China agreed to craft a binding code of conduct in 2002, however, progress toward a binding framework has been repeatedly delayed by legal, political and strategic differences. Manila said earlier that it plans to complete the binding code by the end of the year.

Last week, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. said that ASEAN leaders came to a consensus to proceed with the meetings rather than delay them, with the summit mainly focused on urgent concerns of the regional bloc.

The President said that scheduled leadership meetings will now prioritize coordination on urgent issues such as energy, food security, and migrant workers amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Hansley A. Juliano, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the Philippines, as this year’s chair, should emphasize independence on the Middle East conflict.

The US and Israel on Feb. 28 launched a coordinated strike at Iran aimed at crippling its nuclear weapons program. One month since, the war has further intensified placing a strain on global oil supply and prices with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint that carries about 20 million barrels of oil per day.

“For the Philippines it is in fact an opportunity to argue for greater ASEAN interdependence and middle power independence,” he said in a Messenger chat.

However, Josue Raphael J. Cortez, a diplomacy lecturer at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde, said that the downsized summit may not delay completion of the CoC, but allow the bloc to pivot negotiations between Beijing and the ASEAN.

“Given how we are jointly devising strategies on how we can navigate these pressing times effectively — and the fact that China is among our key partners through ASEAN+3 — then this may lead to attitudinal dynamics which in a way or another may also positively affect how the continuous negotiations may unfold,” he said in a Messenger chat.

Mr. Cortez added that energy security and the welfare of migrant workers are still aligned with the Philippines’ chairship priorities.

“Regional security may also be understood from the lens of energy security, and on the other hand, migrant workers’ welfare is also mirrored in how we now try to explore ways on how we can ensure the safety of our migrant communities,” he said.

The South China Sea remains one of the region’s most volatile flashpoints. China has expanded its presence despite a 2016 ruling by a United Nations-backed arbitral tribunal that voided its sweeping claims over the waters, putting it at odds with claimants such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and Taiwan. — Adrian H. Halili