PSEi may rise further before inflation, labor data

SHARES may continue to climb this week on bargain hunting and as investors await the release of Philippine inflation and labor data.

On Friday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) jumped by 1.35% or 82.14 points to end at 6,135.06, while the broader all shares index went up 1.26% or 43.81 points to close at 3,517.05.

“The local bourse opened 2026 on a positive note as investors gradually repositioned in stocks ripe for the picking following 2025’s lackluster performance,” 2TradeAsia.com said in a market note.

“The local market is coming off from a losing year under tepid trading and heavy net foreign selling. This reflects the low investor confidence towards the local bourse amid lingering issues and their effect on our economy’s performance,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message. “On a positive note, the local market has been holding its position above the 6,000 level.”

For this week, he said bargain hunting may continue to lift the market as players focus on the key reports that may provide clues about the state of the Philippine economy.

“With the losing year, the market remains at bargain levels. This week, we may continue to see bargain hunting in the local market. Investors are also expected to look forward to our upcoming inflation and labor market data. A benign inflation print and strong labor market data are expected to give market sentiment a boost as they are seen to help in the local economy’s household consumption,” he said.

With the market showing a “bullish bias,” the PSEi could test the 6,150 line this week, Mr. Tantiangco said. “If it gets past this, it may target next its 200-day exponential moving average. Support is still seen at 6,000.”

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release December inflation data on Tuesday (Jan. 6) and the November labor force survey on Wednesday (Jan. 7).

A BusinessWorld poll of 14 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.4% for December headline inflation, within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.2%-2% forecast.

This is slower than the 1.5% print in November and 2.9% in the same month in 2024. It would also mark the 10th straight month that the headline figure was below the central bank’s 2%-4% annual target.

“While domestic sentiment remains fragile following a series of fourth-quarter headwinds, the convergence of stabilizing inflation and transmission of aggressive monetary easing cycle suggests that local assets are at a structural inflection point,” 2TradeAsia.com said. “The BSP is entering 2026 with a clear dovish bias as headline inflation is expected to remain comfortably anchored within target.”

“While ‘muddle-through’ price action may persist in the immediate term, the fundamental setup for a 2026 recovery is now firmly in place,” it added.

The online brokerage placed the PSEi’s immediate support at 5,800 and resistance at 6,000, with secondary resistance pegged at 6,200. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno