Stocks to move sideways as mart eyes GDP data

PHILIPPINE STOCKS may move sideways this week as investors wait for the release of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) data.

On Friday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) fell by 1.02% or 65.34 points to end at 6,333.26, while the broader all shares index went down by 0.54% or 19.69 points to close at 3,599.31.

Week on week, the PSEi dropped by 131.41 points from its Jan. 16 finish of 6,464.67.

“The local bourse retreated, weighed in part by renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and European Union,” 2TradeAsia.com said in a market note.

“The local market snapped its four-week rally last week as offshore trade and geopolitical concerns weighed on investor sentiment. In the decline, the bourse gave up its position above the 6,400 level,” Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial, Inc., said via Viber.

Markets hit a rocky patch last week due to the fallout from US President Donald J. Trump’s aggressive stance to acquire Greenland, which threatened a new trade war with Europe, Reuters reported. But major equity indexes rebounded later in the week after Mr. Trump backed off tariff threats, suggesting a deal was in sight for Greenland.

For this week, Mr. Tantiangco said the main trading driver will be the latest Philippine GDP data.

“Focus is expected to be on the Philippines’ fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 gross domestic product data as this would give clues on the local economy’s state and direction. A significant improvement from the third quarter’s 4% growth may spark positive sentiment, but a print slower may cause the market to decline further,” he said.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 economists and analysts yielded a median estimate of 4.2% for fourth-quarter growth. If realized, this would put the full-year average at 4.8%, below the government’s 5.5%-6.5% target.

“Chart-wise, the local market is still considered to be on an uptrend. Its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages are about to form a golden cross, which is a bullish signal,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

“However, we’re also starting to see signs that the market’s momentum is waning… Its moving average convergence/divergence line has already crossed below the signal line, signaling bearish movements in the short run.”

He put the PSEi’s trading range for this week at 6,150 to 6,400.

For its part, 2TradeAsia.com placed the PSEi’s immediate support at 6,300 and resistance at 6,500.

“Domestic assets are navigating the second-degree effects of this global volatility, particularly through the lens of US dollar-Philippine peso fluctuations and redirected capital flows. As capital seeks alternatives, the Philippines stands as a potential beneficiary of ‘hot money’ flows within the region, though broad-based gains are likely to be capped by local inflationary concerns and geopolitical tensions.” — A.G.C. Magno