South China Sea code unlikely to be passed soon — analysts

By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter

The Philippines finds itself at the center of a strategic contest, rallying Southeast Asian neighbors and Western partners against China’s expanding assertiveness in the South China Sea, as it prepares to host the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit next year.

Manila is seeking to accelerate talks on a long-delayed Code of Conduct (CoC) for the disputed waters, aiming to bring negotiations closer to conclusion before it assumes the bloc’s chairmanship in 2026 — a role it will take a year earlier than expected after Myanmar declined its turn.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro said the Philippines wants to meet the 2023 mandate set by ASEAN foreign ministers to finalize a CoC with China “by next year,” even if experts remain skeptical about the chances of securing a legally binding agreement.

“It is our view, and we are all working together to have the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct to be out by next year,” Ms. Lazaro told a recent news briefing. Malaysia is set to host a technical working group meeting this month, followed by Singapore in September, with another round in China later in the year.

“All of these are fast-tracking [ways], but of course, in their own time frame, and the discussions are being really intensely discussed,” she added.

Once it takes over as ASEAN chairman, the Philippines plans to make peace and security, maritime cooperation and climate change the cross-cutting priorities of its leadership. “We are of the view that we should build on what Malaysia has done and create building blocks to strengthen ASEAN cooperation,” Ms. Lazaro said.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., who came to office in 2022, has taken a stronger public stance against Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea. His administration has deepened ties with the US and other like-minded partners such as Australia and Japan, while expanding joint maritime activities.

ASEAN and China signed a nonbinding Declaration of Conduct in 2002, but efforts to transform it into an enforceable framework have repeatedly stalled due to political sensitivities and competing strategic interests.

Analysts say the prospect of finalizing a robust, legally enforceable CoC remains slim.

“The chances are very slim,” Francis M. Esteban, a faculty member at Far Eastern University’s Department of International Studies, said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “We still have to consider that ASEAN works on consensus, and lately, the dynamics between member states have been in shaky waters.”

If consensus is achieved, it would be a “game-changer” that could lend ASEAN greater moral and legal legitimacy on maritime issues, he said.

‘THORNY ISSUES’
Justin Keith A. Baquisal, a national security analyst at FACTS Asia, said member states still differ on what activities should be permitted or prohibited under the CoC.

“While all parties have said they want to have it as soon as possible, there are thorny issues,” he said in a Viber message. “Many want to retain a wide decision space and be flexible, so I doubt they can agree much.”

He added that while the CoC could bring predictability in regional maritime tactics and formalize dispute resolution, it would not be a “magic solution,” especially given Beijing’s track record of ignoring international rulings — including the 2016 arbitral award in favor of the Philippines that voided its sweeping nine-dash line claim.

The South China Sea remains one of Asia’s most volatile flashpoints, claimed wholly or partly by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Taiwan. Beijing asserts sovereignty over more than 80% of the waterway based on a 1940s map — a claim dismissed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

Some ASEAN members remain reluctant to confront China directly, prioritizing economic and military ties with Beijing. “Those ASEAN member states that lean towards China for support will ask the Philippines if it can provide more than what they are getting from China,” Mr. Esteban said.

Mr. Baquisal said neighbors such as Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam have generally adopted nonaligned policies. “They will refrain from outright calling out or confrontation with China. That is ultimately their sovereign prerogative.”

The Philippines, he added, might have to settle for reinforcing regional acceptance of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) without expecting others to join its stronger stance.

Chester B. Cabalza, president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank, said ASEAN should exercise “strategic patience” given the complexity of redefining the regional security framework.

“It will be a feat for ASEAN since the Philippines is a staunch supporter of maritime international law, but China would deter it and call it bias,” he said via Messenger chat.

Tensions in the South China Sea are unfolding alongside intensifying US-China competition in the region. Mr. Cabalza noted that US tariff policies are reshaping trade dynamics in ASEAN, giving Beijing opportunities to deepen economic influence through “lucrative trade-offs” with member capitals.

The Philippines recently concluded reciprocal tariff talks with Washington, set to take effect on Aug. 1. However, its rates offer little advantage over competitors such as Indonesia and Vietnam.

Mr. Baquisal said the Philippines should match its diplomatic push with accelerated military modernization — acquiring more ships, enhancing maritime domain awareness and reinforcing outposts in the Spratly Islands.

The government has embarked on a $35-billion (P2-trillion) modernization program over the next decade, including advanced naval vessels, aircraft, and missile systems. Manila is also integrating foreign partners into its defense posture, holding joint patrols and multilateral exercises in contested waters.

“Habitualizing the treatment of the South China Sea as not Chinese internal waters is very important, as this creates facts on the ground,” Mr. Baquisal said.

Multinational cooperation — once rare in the South China Sea — is becoming more common. The Philippines now routinely participates in exercises with countries like the US, Japan and Australia.

Mr. Esteban suggested embedding South China Sea education in the basic curriculum to foster public understanding of maritime sovereignty. “We need a whole-of-society approach in enforcing our sovereignty,” he added.