PHL power supply deemed adequate over dry season

By Sheldeen Joy Talavera, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES will have adequate supplies of power during the dry season but thinning reserves make it vulnerable to power interruptions going forward, according to think tank Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC).

In its Philippine Power Outlook, ICSC said the Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao grids will find conditions “manageable” between April and June, under “conservative baseline assumptions.”

“The Philippine power system enters the second quarter of 2026 with projected adequacy…” according to the report. “However, the system remains structurally sensitive to additional outages, commissioning delays, and interconnection constraints.”

If there are more baseload power plants offline beyond the conservative estimates, grid alerts may be raised, ICSC said.

The think tank based its analysis on the 2025-2027 Weekly Power Outlook published by the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines in December, with updates integrated from the Department of Energy list of existing and committed power plants as of November 2025.

ICSC took into account forced outages accounting for about 700 to 800 megawatts (MW).

“If additional power plants go oﬄine beyond what is expected, this could further aggravate the power outlook and potentially lead to a more grave outcome, as available supply would be reduced,” Jephraim Manansala, ICSC’s chief data scientist and one of the authors of the report, said in a statement.

For the Luzon grid, supply is projected to be adequate throughout the second quarter, provided that committed power projects are delivered on time.

The ICSC warned that the island’s supply crunch will take place in May. Maintaining sufficient reserve levels during this period will depend heavily on the timely delivery of committed projects and the prevention of forced outages.

The Visayas grid, which can tap the two other grids for supply through high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines, is expected to maintain normal reserves should it continue receiving power from Mindanao and Luzon with no unplanned outages.

The Visayas grid is projected to experience yellow alerts in May, with demand expected to peak at 3,340 MW.

Meanwhile, the ICSC said that Mindanao can maintain normal reserve levels while exporting power to the Visayas.

The grid’s supply crunch is expected in late April, which may prompt possible reductions in HVDC exports when reserve margins narrow, according to the report.

“The recurrence of grid alerts in recent years signals that reliability challenges extend beyond seasonal peaks,” the ICSC said.

“Addressing these vulnerabilities requires both disciplined short-term operations and sustained structural reforms that enhance flexibility, diversify generation sources, and modernize planning frameworks,” it added.

Asked to comment, Energy Undersecretary Mario C. Marasigan told BusinessWorld that the department is currently revisiting all simulations, particularly due to the current “emergency situation.”

“Our simulations are continuously updated and those include grid status,” he said via Viber.