Media companies face tempered Q4 prospects as ad spend normalizes

By Ashley Erika O. Jose, Reporter

LISTED media companies are heading into a challenging fourth quarter after weaker third-quarter earnings, as the post-election advertising boost dissipated and ad budgets normalized, analysts said, although a modest year-end recovery remains possible on seasonal holiday spending.

“The industry narrative for 2025 has been clear all year — election advertising gave a meaningful, concentrated boost in H1 (first half) across listed media houses, and Q3 was the natural correction month when those incremental ad budgets disappeared,” Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc. Head of Sales Trading Toby Allan C. Arce said in a Viber message on Tuesday.

During the third quarter, both GMA Network, Inc. and ABS-CBN Corp. posted lower attributable net income as revenues softened.

“Looking ahead, a recovery by Q4 or by yearend is possible but far from guaranteed; the most likely near-term uplift would come from seasonally stronger year-end advertising and any successful new content or digital monetization wins,” Mr. Arce added.

For the three months ending September, GMA Network’s gross revenue declined by 17.23% to P3.89 billion from P4.70 billion, weighed down partly by higher expenses.

Despite the weaker quarter, GMA Network’s attributable net income for the nine-month period climbed 46.81% to P2.07 billion from P1.41 billion a year ago. Revenues rose 11.92% to P13.99 billion from P12.50 billion, while gross expenses increased 6.06% to P11.37 billion from P10.72 billion.

By segment, advertising revenues increased to P12.77 billion, up 10.47% from P11.56 billion, while consumer sales grew to P1.22 billion from P942.24 million.

Meanwhile, ABS-CBN widened its attributable net loss for the third quarter to P1.28 billion from P389.87 million previously. The company posted combined revenues of P3.48 billion, 19.63% higher than P4.33 billion a year earlier, as total expenses fell 7.85% to P4.58 billion from P4.97 billion.

For the nine months to September, ABS-CBN trimmed its attributable net loss to P2 billion from P2.41 billion despite lower revenues. Gross revenue dipped 3.05% to P11.75 billion from P12.12 billion, while expenses dropped 10.99% to P13.52 billion from P15.19 billion a year earlier.

Advertising revenues rose 14.68% to P5.47 billion from P4.77 billion, while consumer revenues expanded 13.31% to P3.66 billion from P3.23 billion.

First Metro Investment Corp. Head of Research Cristina S. Ulang said: “Recovery is possible by Q4 given higher ads during holiday season.”

“Fourth quarter improvement is plausible and even likely in headline revenue terms because of seasonality, but meaningful earnings recovery to H1 levels will depend on durable ad reallocation,” Mr. Arce added.

At the stock exchange on Wednesday, shares in GMA slipped by three centavos, or 0.57%, to close at P5.22 each, while shares in ABS-CBN closed six centavos, or 1.73% lower, at P3.40 apiece.