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December sees Binay-Poe tie for SWS

Posted on December 23, 2015

RESULTS of the latest pre-election survey of BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (BW-SWS) show Vice-President Jejomar C. Binay and Senator Grace Poe leading contenders for the presidency.

Mr. Binay, however, took a marked lead in another poll conducted by Pulse Asia Research, Inc.

Results of a Dec. 12-14 BW-SWS pre-election survey among 1,200 respondents nationwide -- with sampling error margins of ±3 points -- showed 26% picking Mr. Binay and Ms. Poe as the next president.

[The article on the print edition erroneously stated that Mr. Binay and Ms. Poe also led other presidential hopefuls in another commissioned survey in November. Davao City Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte actually topped that November survey with 38%. Mr. Binay and Ms. Poe came in tied in second place with 21% each. We apologize for that mistake. -- ed.]

The first BW-SWS pre-election survey in September saw both in a statistical tie, with Ms. Poe’s 26% just two points over Mr. Binay, and Liberal Party (LP) standard bearer Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas II not far behind with 20%.

This month, Mr. Roxas placed second with 22%, followed by Davao City Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte with 20%.

Pulse Asia’s poll on Dec. 4-11 showed that 33% of 1,800 registered voter-respondents picked Mr. Binay for the highest office in the country, jumping from 19% in September.

Mr. Duterte placed second at 23%, followed by Ms. Poe with 21% and Mr. Roxas with 17%.

“The recent survey results encourage the Vice-President to double his effort of directly telling our people of his plans to uplift their lives and make the government relevant in solving poverty, unemployment, and lingering social ills,” Mr. Binay’s spokesman for political affairs Rico Paolo R. Quicho said in a statement on Tuesday.

In a separate statement, Mr. Roxas said that the most important survey would be the actual elections in May. “Tulad ng parati kong sinasabi, ang pinakaimportante ay ang survey sa Mayo, sa botohan mismo. Nakita natin na magulo pa ito... (As I have always said, the most important survey is the one in May, the actual elections. We have seen that preferences are still fluid...”) he said.

Edmund S. Tayao, political science professor at the University of Santo Tomas, said the “only reason his (Mr. Binay’s) numbers went up is because of the substantial issues being faced by Senator Poe and Mayor Duterte”, referring to complaints filed with the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to disqualify them from the presidential race.

Two Comelec divisions have barred Ms. Poe from running for the presidency, and a report by GMA Network, Inc. last night -- citing a source -- said the commission en banc had upheld their rulings. “Because of the issues, instead of considering (Ms.) Poe or (Mr.) Duterte, the respondents chose Binay,” Mr. Tayao said.

In the vice-presidential race, Senator Francis Joseph “Chiz” G. Escudero emerged as the top choice with 30% (flat from November) in the BW-SWS survey, followed by LP bet Camarines Sur Rep. Maria Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo and Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr. who were tied with 19%. Senator Alan Peter C. Cayetano was hot on their heels with 17%.

Mr. Escudero also emerged as top choice for the country’s second-highest post in the Pulse Asia survey at 29%. He was followed by Mr. Marcos with 23%; Mr. Cayetano with 18% and Ms. Robredo with 14%.

For the senatorial race, incumbent senators Vicente C. Sotto III and Ralph G. Recto, as well as Francis N. Pangilinan, former food security presidential assistant, led the pack in the BW-SWS survey. Mr. Sotto also led Pulse Asia’s survey, followed in second place by Mr. Recto, former senators Panfilo M. Lacson, Richard J. Gordon and Juan Miguel F. Zubiri, as well as Senate President Franklin M. Drilon. -- KMPT

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