Binay leads Pulse Asia survey

Posted on July 22, 2014

VICE-PRESIDENT Jejomar C. Binay remained the top presidential bet for the upcoming 2016 elections, beating other perceived aspirants by a wide margin, the latest Pulse Asia survey showed.

Results of a June 24-July 2 survey on Filipinos’ Presidential Preferences for 2016 showed Mr. Binay still the top contender for the presidency, obtaining a plurality at 41%, slightly up from his 40% rating on the same survey last March.

The Vice President got 44% of votes in the National Capital Region (NCR), 41% in “Balance Luzon,” 37% in the Visayas and 42% in Mindanao.

By socioeconomic class, he got 36% of votes among class ABC, 42% among class D and 40% among class E.

A spokesman of Mr. Binay said the Vice-President “accepts with gratitude and humility the Pulse Asia survey results.”

Senator Grace Poe-Llamanzares came in second at 12% (from 15% last March), followed by former president and now Manila mayor Joseph E. Estrada at 9%.

Ms. Poe-Llamanzares got 11% of votes in NCR, 12% in “Balance Luzon,” 15% in the Visayas and 9% in Mindanao. She also got 7% of votes among class ABC, 12% in class D and 14% in class E, while Mr. Estrada got 5% in NCR, 10% in “Balance Luzon,” 6% in the Visayas and 15% in Mindanao. By socioeconomic class, he got 8% in class ABC, 7% in class D and 16% in class E.

Senators Francis Joseph “Chiz” G. Escudero, Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas II and Miriam Defensor-Santiago followed at 4th to 6th place respectively with 7% each. In the previous quarter, Mr. Escudero got 9%, Ms. Santiago got 10% and Mr. Roxas got 6%.

Mr. Escudero got 7% of the votes in NCR, 9% in “Balance Luzon,” 5% in the Visayas and 7% in Mindanao. He got 4% in class ABC, 9% in class D and 5% in class E.

Mr. Roxas got 4% of the votes in NCR, 5% in “Balance Luzon,” 11% in the Visayas and 11% in Mindanao. He got 7% in class ABC, 8% in class D and 6% in class E.

Ms. Defensor-Santiago, meanwhile, got 8% in NCR, 7% in “Balance Luzon,” 8% in the Visayas and 3% in Mindanao. She got 16% in class ABC, 6% in class D and 4% in class E.

They were followed by Senators Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr., and Alan Peter S. Cayetano with 5% each in the 2nd quarter from 5% and 4% respectively.

Senator Ramon “Bong” B. Revilla, Jr., currently detained on plunder charges in connection with the P10-billion pork barrel scam, got 2% (from 3%), followed by Senate President Franklin M. Drilon and former senator and now Red Cross chairman Richard J. Gordon with 1% each.

Mr. Binay and Mr. Cayetano have expressed their intention to run for president while Ms. Poe-Llamanzares has been reserved or tentative about considering that option.

Political analyst Ramon C. Casiple said the results show the difficulty faced by other possible candidates against Mr. Binay, “particularly [Mr.] Roxas,” adding that the results also show the potential of Ms. Poe.

For his part, University of the Philippines professor Dr. Prospero E. de Vera III told BusinessWorld: “The survey results are not surprising because all incumbent VPs enjoy the advantage of institutional visibility and legitimacy.”

“It is too early to say [Mr.] Binay will win. Too many things can still happen between now and 2016 and voters choices at this point are top of mind choices,” he added.

The same Pulse Asia survey showed Ms. Poe-Llamanzares as the top choice for the vice presidency in 2016 with 26% votes followed by Mr. Escudero with 22% votes, Mr. Cayetano with 14%, Mr. Marcos with 8% and Senator Antonio F. Trillanes with 6%.

Five percent said they will vote for Senator Jose “Jinggoy” E. Estrada, also currently detained on plunder charges over the pork-barrel scam, and another 5% said they will vote for Mr. Drilon.

Batangas Governor Rosa Vilma Santos-Recto and Mr. Revilla each had 4%, and Camarines Sur Rep. Maria Leonor Gerona-Robredo (3rd district) had 1%.

The survey period covered the arrest and detention of senators tagged in the pork barrel scam, the controversy over the Disbursement Acceleration Program, the Philippines’ maritime tension with China and other public issues.

The survey involved face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult Filipinos nationwide. It has a +/-3% error margin at the 95% confidence level and +/- 6% error margin for subnational estimates at the 95% confidence level. -- Imee Charlee C. Delavin